Edge Switching and Routing Markets Begin Recovery in 2002

CEDAR KNOLLS, N.J., November 15, 2001 - While the downturn in theedge switching and routing markets have been significant, ProbeResearch forecasts a recovery that puts these markets at a respective$7.9 billion and $8.5 billion by 2006. According to Probe's vicepresident of Internet access and edge infrastructure, Richard Endersby,"Demand is expected to increase over the longer term, driven by trafficgrowth. However, the provision of revenue-generating services which arescalable and manageable by the carrier will be the key for vendorstrying to crack this market."

Endersby cautions, however, that the demand will not grow at thepercentage rates experienced during the early days of the Internet'sgrowth. "Probe has warned for some time of the impact of trafficlocalization on the core routing/switching business, in addition to theimpending slowdown in U.S. backbone traffic growth rates."

He also notes that while dominant vendors such as Cisco and Lucenthave managed to retain power in the market, they have sufferedsignificantly during this economic downturn and still face a threatfrom smaller players and startups. "The majors have not been as agileas the new entrants as they are, to a large extent, hampered by theirlegacies. There is a clear opportunity for the startups, but they needto recognize that proving a few samples for testing in a telco's lab isa totally different game compared to rollouts in the field."

Probe Research, Inc. provides ongoing strategic analysis in threeprimary sectors of the technology industry - Telecom, IP, and Wireless- and their related convergence issues. Probe has also just releasedtwo important studies: Shocks!, written by Allan Tumolillo, COO,is Probe's response to the wave of terrorist attacks against the U.S.and the resulting implications for the telecom, IP, and wirelessindustries. Super Competitor: Dominating the New Era ofTelecom/Wireless/Internet is a comprehensive, strategic study ofthe future of these industries. Written by Victor Schnee, president,and Allan Tumolillo, co-authors of Mega Strategies and Taking OverTelephone Companies, the conclusions and strategies put forth inthe study have been reinforced by recent events with a resultingforecast of a new dominant international competitors arising out of thecurrent industry chaos.